Parliament House, Hobart, Barrylb, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
On 19th July, Tasmanians will head to the polls once again. This will be the third early election in a row, this time just over a year since the previous election in March 2024. For those of us on the north island, it can be a bit confusing to understand what is going on. So in this article, we’ll take a brief dive into how Tasmania has ended up with another early election, and what is likely to happen next.
A Brief History of the Hare-Clark System
Tasmania’s elections are run using the Hare-Clark system, first introduced by Tasmanian attorney-general Andrew Inglis Clark in 1896 (who is also the namesake of the electorate that covers most of Hobart) and used at every state election since 1909. It has also been used for territory elections in the ACT since 1992.
Hare-Clark is an electoral system for multi-member electorates. It works very similarly to voting in the Senate at federal elections, but with the important difference of not having above-the-line voting. This means that candidates can and do actively compete against their party colleagues. This is reinforced by the use of Robson Rotation since 1980, whereby the order of candidates is randomised on each ballot paper, eliminating the advantage of donkey voting.
Tasmanian state elections use the same electoral boundaries as federal elections. One of the most significant contributing factors to the current situation is a change made for the 2024 election, with each electorate electing 7 members (up from 5), for a total parliament size of 35 (up from 25). This made it significantly easier for independents and minor parties to be elected, as each seat required a lower percentage of the vote.
The Current Parliament
In 2018 and 2021, the Liberal Party won majority government by one seat. Both times, the government dissolved early after Liberal members defected to the crossbench. Then in 2024, with 10 extra seats created in the parliament, Labor and Liberal each won only one extra seat than they had in 2021. Meanwhile, the Greens more than doubled their seat count from 2 to 5, and the Jacqui Lambie Network also picked up 3 seats.
The end result was an unwieldy hung parliament that was always going to be difficult for either side to manage. After Labor refused to work with the Greens, it was left to Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff to scramble together support from the Jacqui Lambie Network and former Labor leader turned independent David O’Byrne. Then in August, Lambie expelled two of her three members, which also ended this agreement. The government has been living on borrowed time since then.
If I’m honest, I think Jacqui Lambie bears a fair amount of responsibility for how this has played out. Don’t get me wrong, I have a lot of respect for Lambie, and overall I think she has been a positive force in Australian politics. Clearly, I’m not alone, given that her name recognition was enough to elect three otherwise unknown and inexperienced politicians. However, it seems that leading an institution that is able to bring people along with her is not her strong point. We saw this with the swift defection of her fellow senator Tammy Tyrell, and I think the current events in Tasmania cement this point further.
A Stadium without a Budget
The biggest issue in Tasmanian politics right now is the construction of a new stadium, which was a condition imposed on the government by the AFL for the entry of the Tasmania Devils. Tasmania is an AFL state – the sport is very popular and support for a local team in the national competition is high. But this is not matched by support to build a new stadium in Hobart, which is unpopular everywhere but especially in the north of the state who will be paying for a project they see no benefit from. This contradiction is easy to understand when you see the price tag, which currently sits at nearly $1 billion.
Coincidentally, this figure is almost as large as the red ink at the bottom of the Tasmanian budget papers. According to Tasmanian economist Saul Eslake, they are in the worst budgetary position of any Australian state. So when the 2025/26 budget was tabled in parliament last month, Labor took its opportunity to strike. A no-confidence motion in Premier Rockliff was debated in parliament for three days, before resulting in a 17-17 tie. The speaker, Labor’s Michelle O’Byrne, gave a moving and honourable address before casting the damning vote.
As the government of the last 11 years, responsibility for the current situation rests squarely with the Liberals. But beyond bringing an early election, it is not clear to this unenlightened mainlander what Labor’s plan is to address the budget shortfall. Opposition leader Dean Winter has been a vocal supporter of the stadium project, even if he has reservations about the Rockliff government’s implementation. With $375 million already allocated to the project (not including funding from the federal government and the AFL), there will have to be some serious savings found elsewhere to pay for it. Whatever government Tasmanians elect on 19th July, they will have their work cut out for them.
What Might the Next Parliament Look Like?
Labor has brought this no-confidence motion hoping to replicate their federal success in the state, with a 9% swing sweeping the Liberals off the Apple Isle. If this is the extent of their plans, then they are in for a rude awakening. The recently expanded parliament elected by Hare-Clark means that it would take a similar landslide just to produce a one to three-seat majority. But this election will be fought on very different issues to those that prevailed for Labor in May.
Current polling has Labor ahead of the Liberal party, which would make them the largest party in the new parliament. But unlike the other Hare-Clark system in the ACT, where Labor and the Greens have governed together for 24 straight years, Dean Winter has repeatedly ruled out working with the Greens. This resolve may be put to the test, because a Green-supported Labor government may be the only viable option for the new parliament. If this is the case, he will certainly accept that support over going back to the polls yet again.
The Liberals have a very simple task – to sandbag as much ground as they possibly can. In this, they will be aided by at least one high-profile candidate, recently defeated but still very popular Bass MP Bridget Archer. She is not the first candidate to make such a switch, as the shared electoral boundaries make transitioning between state and federal politics much smoother than in other states. And with less than 10,000 votes needed to secure a seat in parliament, elections in Tasmania focus far more on individual personalities than they do in other states.
Jacqui Lambie has declared she will not be running any candidates in this election, leaving her former MPs in search of a political home. They may soon find it, with the announcement that the Nationals will be fielding Tasmanian candidates for only the third time in over 50 years. But don’t expect them to be friendly with the Liberals like other states; they’re running on an explicitly anti-stadium platform. So too are many independents who are putting up their hands across the state.
It seems likely that we will end up in the strange situation where whichever party wins, they will be supported by a group that opposes their stance on the hottest issue in the state. Both major parties support the stadium project in some form, and they are just about the only ones that do. Whoever wins, I suspect we will see the Labor and Liberal parties voting together against the crossbench to get it built. Because that will be much easier than trying to stand up against the demands of the AFL.
Chris Shaw is a mathematician and data analyst with an MPhil in statistical research. He is currently writing a book on truth and politics. He attends an Anglican church in Sydney.
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